Mon 27 Aug 2012
Famine FAIL
Posted by Ed under Academia, development, Development Institutions, Food Security, Higher Education, policy
[10] Comments
Today, I reentered the classroom for the first time in two years. That’s not completely accurate, actually – I lectured at the Foreign Service Institute several times while I was in DC, and I have a number of lectures, so I am not totally out of practice. And after you’ve spent over 1000 hours (!!!) in front of a classroom, it really is like riding a bike…
Despite my classroom experience, I was seriously thrown by a moment in class today – I was discussing the different climates we see in East Africa, and mentioned the Horn of Africa famine in an offhand way…then realized there were too many blank stares. So I asked the class directly how many of them were aware of the famine. Not a single hand went up – 70 students, no hands. Now, maybe someone put up a hand in that half-shrug, uncomfortable sort of way and I missed it. And perhaps a few people had heard of the famine, but had not heard of it as something going on in the Horn of Africa. But…at best, that is a few people. Out of 70.
HOW THE HELL COULD THIS HAPPEN? Somewhere between 50,000 and 100,000 people died in this famine – actually, that is a very low estimate, given that we were looking at 20,000-30,000 under-5 deaths in August 2011, and things stayed bad for quite a while after. This is probably the single biggest human catastrophe since the Boxing Day Tsunami in 2004 (that killed 230,000 people).
I don’t blame the students. Honestly. They are wired in – they get all kinds of media all day long. The simple fact is that the story of this famine was never sold very well, or very widely. I thought the PSA campaign around the famine was terrible – a bunch of B-list celebrities, at best, in really dull clips (more on that in a later post). Media coverage was confused. Most could not separate drought from famine (which led me to write my most-viewed post ever), attributing the causes completely to the weather. Others played up the Somalia terrorism angle with al-Shabab, a heterogenous and not terribly effective fundamentalist group in Somalia that decided to turn itself into drone bait by aligning with al-Qaeda. But the whole story was much more than could be compressed into 2 minutes on the nightly news.
That these students didn’t know about the famine is a lost opportunity – an opportunity to illustrate how complex the world is, how climate change compromises development efforts, how relief work is very hard, and very political, and how there are a hell of a lot of really heroic people doing amazing work that probably saved as many lives as were lost, if not many, many more. These are the people who will become educated voters, who will shape America’s place in the world through who they elect and what sorts of priorities they express – and they have no idea that America has a tool like FEWS-NET, which now can predict when and where famine will break out months in advance in several African countries…this is an astonishing accomplishment, and the envy of the world. And if the foreign aid cutters in Congress get their way, it could go away.
Maybe many more people paid attention to the famine on other campuses, in other states…but somehow, I have a feeling that my class was not all that much of an anomaly. Simply put, we in the relief and development community suck at messaging. Between the frantic and often disingenuous fundraising that imprint television viewers with the belief that the situation is hopeless, the confused media reporting as everyone looks for their unique angle, and the near-total failure of messaging from the donor institutions, it is no wonder my students were clueless – hell, they almost certainly knew about the famine, at least in passing, but the completely disjointed storytelling probably prevented any meaningful understanding of the causes of the events or how to address these causes and their impacts.
I have no idea how to fix this, but somebody has to fix this. It is too important to be lamented and then ignored in favor of “doing the work” of development and relief. Messaging is the work of development and relief – telling the story of what we do, why it needs to be done, and how we could do less of it in the future if we just addressed some root causes now is fundamental to getting the societal buy-in we need to do our jobs right. Somebody do this right. I can only reach 70 people at a time…
10 Responses to “ Famine FAIL ”
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[...] totally get where Ed Carr is coming from in his angst-ridden rant about students who don’t know there’s a famine on (more than one, actually), or why it matters. But the truth is I sort of gave up on ordinary [...]
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[...] given the twitter/blog/social media/whatever response to my post expressing shock at my students’ lack of awareness of the Horn of Africa drought, I did a little follow-up with them today. This was the first day of real lecture content in the [...]
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[...]Famine FAIL « Open The Echo Chamber[...]…
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[...] surprised at his students’ lack of knowledge about the Africa famine. To quote Carr: “HOW THE HELL DID THIS HAPPEN? Somewhere between 50,000 and 100,000 people died in this famine…” Good question. How [...]

Pretty sure a Kardashian got married at the same time… the attention span of the media is limited.
Also pretty sure that most people don’t know South Sudan is its own country now.
Go to bed, Ed!
You overestimate my need for sleep!
The 50,000-100,000 death toll estimate was made by DFID, Britain’s overseas aid department. Do you happen to know the maths behind it? I can’t find anything other than a statement by DFID’s minister.
Ditto for your ’20,000-30,000 under-5 deaths in August 2011′. I assume that’s the USAID/CDC 90-day (May, June, July) estimate: 29,000. Do you know anything about the assumptions and calculations that produced that number?
(Callous quibbling? Guilty. But I’ve grown very suspicious of death tolls issued while crises are ongoing. Noble cause corruption and all that.)
Vinny, very good question. The total count number seems totally unsubstantiated, except for some sort of ballpark – and it strikes me as very, very low. I could be wrong there, but I have yet to see good sourcing on it. I do know the 20-30k number well, as I was in the room the first time it was uttered…by FEWS-NET. They were working with very fine grained information, even in Somalia, about conditions on the ground, especially global malnutrition rates. Those numbers strike me as depressingly reliable – FEWS-NET is a stunning tool backed by even more stunning people and data. They would be the first to put significant error bars on their numbers (which is why I did not say 29,000), but their numbers are the best there are…and they are not derived through politics. How their results are used, of course, is a different story – but I heard the 29,000 number in a closed meeting as raw data, long before a political message could be derived about it.
Thanks for the info. I agree that if the estimate for pre-August infant deaths is solid then 50,000-100,000 total deaths doesn’t look at all unlikely, even if that estimate was just grabbed out of a hat, and it might even be low.
But how solid is it? I have read that the scale of the crisis was exaggerated for parts of Somalia (principally around Mogadishu, I think) and although FEWS NET is an admirable organization it is itself not wholly untainted by exaggeration. It was responsible for the widely repeated (and distorted) claim that the eastern Horn of Africa was, in May 2011, experiencing its worst drought for sixty years. This claim, which was on its front page for months, was based on an analysis of spatially and temporally patchy data that suggested that rainfall in northern Kenya during the 2010 short rains and 2011 long rains (which hadn’t finished when the analysis was done) had been the lowest for sixty years and in two widely separated districts in Ethiopia (only one of them in the eastern Horn) it had been the second lowest. So the most that could be said was that northern Kenya had probably received less rainfall than in any other June-May period for sixty years. That’s serious stuff but it’s not the whole of the eastern Horn of Africa – or even part of it. It’s the southern Horn.
They probably wanted to say that Somalia was suffering its worst meteorological drought for 60 years, and parts of it probably were, but the analysis didn’t include Somalia because there wasn’t enough data. So northern Kenya and bits of Ethiopia stood in for Somalia – for the eastern Horn – and when the newspapers got hold of this it became the whole Horn, then the whole of East Africa, then, in at least one case, the whole of Africa. FEWS NET’s fault? Probably not, but they didn’t set a very good example.
None of which has much to do with malnutrition rates reported on the ground but you can perhaps see why I don’t wholly trust FEWS NET any more.
Yeah, the famine was a pretty big story. Certainly was in the UK at least and all the institutions got behind it.
Fast forward a year from the peak of it to today, and my own INGO is more fully stretched into more large-scale emergencies than at any time since 2005. (And that doesn’t include Syria… yet?) But not a one of them would feature in the first 20 pages of a major newspaper.